02/05/2011

The uncertain future of Syria

This last week saw the revolt in Syria accelerate. The Syrian people legitimately demand political reforms after 48 years of Baath Party rule. As a reminder, this party, dominated by the Alawite minority which resulted in Bashar al-Assad but we do not really know the composition of its management or the program, has put the country under supervision for 48 years. The protests started at Deraa, could not be contained by the power and have now spread throughout the country. Nobody can predict the time for the events.

The regime thought they could extinguish the spark by methods corny and totally ineffective.While prohibiting the country’s access to foreign media, the regime first began a campaign of misinformation that seems so absurd now: minimization of events, accusations of them to « extremist terrorists » and « foreign agents . Secondly, reforms front were made. These include the abolition of the state of emergency in place for nearly half a century – without having any time to adopt new legislation on security – and the right to peaceful protest under certain conditions such as the agreement Ministry of Interior.
These early methods did not satisfy the legitimate demands for reform and Bashar al-Assad, like Colonel Qaddafi, has chosen the brutal attempt to extinguish the fire. Since the crackdown began, 450 people have already died. The cycle of violence now seems uncontrollable causes of death for every funeral, every funeral of new events and each event of further deaths.
For its part, the international community does not seem to take even the extent of repression and it seems that its intervention will not exceed the verbal condemnation and economic sanctions. A resolution of the Security Council, as Resolution 1703 authorizing the use of force in Libya, seems unlikely to effect this time. China and Russia did indeed leave more convincing.
However, this repression n’assuerera not the continuation of the scheme of Bashar Assad in the medium term. Indeed, defections within his own camp appear – 230 Baath Party officials have resigned in protest against the violence of the regime towards citizens – and the army, although qu’encadrée by Alawi, is mainly composed of conscripts, So Sunni majority in Syria.This could, as in Egypt, switch sides.
The salvation of the Syrian people will come there for a turnaround in the army? We can only hope because it will probably not have the international community or the West. The future of Syria remains very uncertain and the only thing we can predict right now is that the crisis will be long or bloody.
Geoffroy d’Aspremont