09/11/2012

Israel vs. Iran: a victory of Obama which will not settle Netanyahu

As if the history repeats it again with regular intervals and with few weeks from distance, the threat of an Israeli intervention against Iran, the day before the American elections this week, has spread  a little more still confusion in regional chancelleries and in all international community. Nevertheless, we could become used to it. Maybe there is nothing to understand, so much the effects of announcement from ten years, go and come about a possible Israeli-American conjoint intervention to try to destroy the Iranian nuclear installations… if they exist. Israel got into a panic last month, seeing the date of October 1st approaching, supposed day when Iran would finally be endowed with the nuclear weapon.
After a month of mediatic silence, Benjamin Netanyahu, of return of France and speaking about the second television channel of the country, said himself  » ready, if needed, to press on the button  » to launch an attack against Iran. It was last 5th of November when the media had widely diverted their attention from the subject, caught in a vice between the Syrian crisis and the American election. But Netanyahu knows how to make pay the attention on him and its threatened country.
Since about twenty years indeed, Israel brandishes the threat to an attack against Teheran and its military installations, indeed nuclear. They were in a embryonic stage at that time, they would be ready now and so dangerous for Israel survival: « the idea of an attack against the Iranian nuclear installations is evoked by Israel since 1994 but  is since 2002 that this option is really studied as possible answer to the threat of nucléarist Iran », explains Jean-Baptiste Beauchard, PhD student in the IRSEM and in the Military academy in Paris.
Nevertheless, with regard at global transformation of the region from several months, the Iranian threat question would have been able to demote in the politics Israeli consciousness. Now, that’s not the case. According to Yigal Palmor, the Spokesman of Israeli Foreign Affairs Minister, interviewed by our care last September: «the Iranian threat never was the only one. It was, and it stays, the most important».
Actually, for many experts, there are few risks that the war takes place as is, and the victory of Obama will not arrange Israeli Prime Minister Affaires in front of the  go away war republican as Mitt Romney, personal friend of Netanyahu but deposed candidate.
Netanyahu has to envisage the scenario the worst and knows as well, as once re-elected, Obama will make everything to force him to calm things. Beyond the impossibility of the Israel military success at the moment, without American logistic support, we could doubt today that Israel dashes into such a suicidal operation against Teheran.
But has Netanyahu so much to lose? Next January, he probably will go out strengthened by the result of the early general election which he has convened, and he could  decide, in spite of the slight chances of success,  » to go there « . Charles Enderlin, journalist in France 2 and expert recently testified in an interview given on France Television (http://www.francetvinfo.fr/nucleaire-iranien-netanyahu-ne-bluffe-pas_165677.html): «I am persuaded that Benyamin Netanyahu does not bluff and that he really intends to throw a large-scale striking on the Iranian nuclear power. It is the mission which he gave itself». Divine Mission? The gravity of the situation exceeds(overtakes) widely the traditional and rational frame of analysis: Israel is afraid, lives in the permanent state of war since 1948, and the mythological vision of an eternal enemy, Amalek, re-appears and can completely urge, by access of madness,  Prime Minister to launch the operation. And the immediate consequences would be terrible; always according to Enderlin« If Israel bombards Iran, the Iranians risk to respond to the American bases in Persian Gulf. They will try to block the Strait of Hormuz and America will be drawn into the war. What will be the pressures which the next American administration will exercise on Israel for not be pulled in such adventure? It’s so early for knowing it».
Sébastien Boussois